{"asOf":"2026-07-28T05:36:31.798Z","tier":"free","categories":["Australia","Commodities","Recession","Labor","Credit","Growth","Housing","Inflation","Liquidity","Global","Sentiment","Currency","Rates"],"total":46,"freeCount":9,"indicators":[{"id":"rba","num":30,"category":"Australia","region":"Australia","name":"RBA Cash Rate","frequency":"8×/year","sourceLabel":"RBA · administered target","chartable":false,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":true,"summary":"The RBA's policy rate — the anchor for every Australian borrowing cost, the dollar and the curve. Administered (set by the Board), so it's pinned to the current target.","value":3.6,"display":"3.60%","change":0,"changeDisplay":"","tone":"caution","signal":"3–4% — restrictive, demand cooling","levels":["Below 1% — highly accommodative, emergency settings","1–3% — broadly neutral policy","3–4% — restrictive, demand cooling","Above 4% — significantly restrictive"],"confirmedAt":"2025-12-09"},{"id":"auus10y","num":31,"category":"Australia","region":"Australia","name":"AU – US 10Y Spread","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · ACGB 10Y − UST 10Y","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"The single most useful cross-market signal for the Aussie dollar — the yield pick-up (or discount) of Australian 10Y bonds over US Treasuries. Drives carry and the AUD.","value":0.14,"display":"0.14%","change":-0.13,"changeDisplay":"","staleNote":"AU leg is a monthly average, 57 days old; the US leg is daily. The level mixes frequencies — read it as a level, not a daily move.","tone":"neutral","signal":"0% to +1% — modest positive carry","levels":["Below −1% — deep negative carry, AUD under pressure","−1% to 0% — negative carry","0% to +1% — modest positive carry","Above +1% — strong carry, AUD supportive"],"observedAt":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"au10y","num":32,"category":"Australia","region":"Australia","name":"AU 10Y Bond Yield","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · IRLTLT01AUM156N (ACGB 10Y)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"auunemp","num":33,"category":"Australia","region":"Australia","name":"AU Unemployment Rate","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · LRHUTTTTAUM156S (ABS, SA)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"aucpi","num":34,"category":"Australia","region":"Australia","name":"AU CPI (YoY)","frequency":"Quarterly","sourceLabel":"FRED · AUSCPIALLQINMEI (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"audtwi","num":35,"category":"Currency","region":"Australia","name":"AUD Effective Exchange Rate (BIS)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · NBAUBIS (BIS broad NEER, 2020=100)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"ironore","num":40,"category":"Commodities","region":"Global","name":"Iron Ore (62% Fe)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PIORECRUSDM (IMF)","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"Australia's largest single export and the swing variable for BHP, Rio and Fortescue earnings — and the federal budget's revenue.","value":103.7909090909091,"display":"104 US$/t","change":-7.837662337662309,"changeDisplay":"-8","tone":"neutral","signal":"US$100–130 — healthy","levels":["Below US$80 — margin pressure for miners","US$80–100 — soft","US$100–130 — healthy","Above US$130 — strong miner earnings"],"observedAt":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"coal","num":41,"category":"Commodities","region":"Global","name":"Coal (Australia)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PCOALAUUSDM (IMF, Newcastle)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"lng","num":42,"category":"Commodities","region":"Global","name":"LNG (Asia)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PNGASJPUSDM (IMF, Japan)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"copper","num":43,"category":"Commodities","region":"Global","name":"Copper","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PCOPPUSDM (IMF)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"t10y2y","num":1,"category":"Recession","region":"United States","name":"10Y – 2Y Treasury Spread","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · T10Y2Y","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"The most-watched recession signal. Inversion has preceded every US recession since the 1950s.","value":0.34,"display":"0.34%","change":-0.019999999999999962,"changeDisplay":"-0.02pp","tone":"caution","signal":"0% to +0.5% — flattening, late-cycle","levels":["Below −0.5% — deep inversion, recession within 12–18m","−0.5% to 0% — mild inversion, caution","0% to +0.5% — flattening, late-cycle","+0.5% to +1.5% — healthy expansion","Above +1.5% — steep, strong growth ahead"],"observedAt":"2026-07-27"},{"id":"hyoas","num":6,"category":"Credit","region":"United States","name":"High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · ICE BofA HY OAS","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"The credit market's fear gauge. Widening leads equity peaks by 3–6 months.","value":2.79,"display":"2.79%","change":0.020000000000000018,"changeDisplay":"+0.02pp","tone":"bull","signal":"Below 3% — very tight, risk appetite high","levels":["Below 3% — very tight, risk appetite high","3–4% — normal, benign credit","4–6% — elevated stress","6–9% — significant stress / credit crunch","Above 9% — crisis territory"],"observedAt":"2026-07-24"},{"id":"vix","num":20,"category":"Sentiment","region":"United States","name":"VIX — Volatility Index","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · CBOE VIXCLS","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"The equity market's 'fear index' — 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500.","value":18.58,"display":"18.58","change":-0.120000000000001,"changeDisplay":"-0.12","tone":"neutral","signal":"13–20 — normal / healthy","levels":["Below 13 — extreme complacency","13–20 — normal / healthy","20–30 — elevated anxiety","30–40 — significant fear","Above 40 — panic (often contrarian buy)"],"observedAt":"2026-07-24"},{"id":"t10y3m","num":5,"category":"Recession","region":"United States","name":"10Y – 3M Treasury Spread","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · T10Y3M","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"sahm","num":3,"category":"Recession","region":"United States","name":"Sahm Rule","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · SAHMREALTIME","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"claims","num":4,"category":"Recession","region":"United States","name":"Initial Jobless Claims","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · ICSA","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"igoas","num":7,"category":"Credit","region":"United States","name":"Investment-Grade Spread (OAS)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · ICE BofA IG OAS","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"t5yie","num":14,"category":"Inflation","region":"United States","name":"5Y Breakeven Inflation","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · T5YIE","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"real10y","num":17,"category":"Liquidity","region":"United States","name":"Real 10Y Rate (TIPS)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · DFII10","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"umich","num":22,"category":"Sentiment","region":"United States","name":"U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · UMCSENT","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"dxy","num":23,"category":"Currency","region":"United States","name":"US Dollar Index (Broad)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · DTWEXBGS","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"usdjpy","num":24,"category":"Currency","region":"United States","name":"USD / JPY","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · DEXJPUS","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"fedgap","num":2,"category":"Recession","region":"United States","name":"2Y Yield vs Fed Funds","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · DGS2 − Fed Funds (DFEDTARU)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"vu","num":8,"category":"Labor","region":"United States","name":"JOLTS V/U Ratio","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · JTSJOL ÷ UNEMPLOY (job openings per unemployed)","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"Job openings per unemployed person — the Fed's preferred gauge of labour-market tightness. Above ~1.5 is overheating; below 0.8 means slack is opening up.","value":1.07,"display":"1.07","change":0.03,"changeDisplay":"+0.03","tone":"bull","signal":"1.0–1.5 — healthy, balanced demand","levels":["Below 0.8 — slack opening up, demand softening","0.8–1.0 — cooling toward balance","1.0–1.5 — healthy, balanced demand","Above 1.5 — overheating, wage-pressure risk"],"observedAt":"2026-05-01"},{"id":"quits","num":9,"category":"Labor","region":"United States","name":"JOLTS Quits Rate","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · JTSQUR","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"temphelp","num":10,"category":"Labor","region":"United States","name":"Temp Help Employment (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · TEMPHELPS (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"contclaims","num":11,"category":"Labor","region":"United States","name":"Continuing Jobless Claims","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · CCSA (millions)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"sloos","num":12,"category":"Credit","region":"United States","name":"SLOOS — Bank Lending Standards","frequency":"Quarterly","sourceLabel":"FRED · DRTSCILM (net % tightening C&I)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"carddelinq","num":13,"category":"Credit","region":"United States","name":"Credit Card Delinquency Rate","frequency":"Quarterly","sourceLabel":"FRED · DRCCLACBS","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"cfnai","num":15,"category":"Growth","region":"United States","name":"Chicago Fed CFNAI-MA3","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · CFNAIMA3 (85-indicator composite, 3m avg)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"realretail","num":16,"category":"Growth","region":"United States","name":"Real Retail Sales (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · RRSFS (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"goldcopper","num":18,"category":"Growth","region":"Global","name":"Gold / Copper Ratio","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"Yahoo · Gold (GC=F) ÷ Copper (HG=F)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"permits","num":36,"category":"Housing","region":"United States","name":"Building Permits (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PERMIT (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"Builders pull permits only when they expect demand 6–18 months out — one of the cleanest leading indicators. Down more than 25% year-on-year has accompanied recession onsets.","value":-1.79,"display":"-1.8%","change":-1.36,"changeDisplay":"-1.36pp","tone":"caution","signal":"−20% to 0% — permits softening","levels":["Below −20% — sharp pullback, recession-consistent","−20% to 0% — permits softening","Above 0% — permits expanding"],"observedAt":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"housingstarts","num":37,"category":"Housing","region":"United States","name":"Housing Starts","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · HOUST (millions SAAR)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"mortgagespread","num":38,"category":"Housing","region":"United States","name":"Mortgage – Treasury Spread","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · 30Y Mortgage − 10Y Treasury (bps)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"corepce","num":19,"category":"Inflation","region":"United States","name":"Core PCE Inflation (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PCEPILFE (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"tier":"free","locked":false,"stale":false,"summary":"The inflation measure the Fed actually targets. CPI typically runs 0.3–0.4pp hotter, so reading the Fed through CPI misjudges policy.","value":3.41,"display":"3.4%","change":0.09,"changeDisplay":"+0.09pp","tone":"bear","signal":"Above 2.7% — inflation uncomfortably high","levels":["Below 1.5% — disinflation toward deflation risk","1.5–2.2% — at or near the 2% target","2.2–2.7% — modestly above target","Above 2.7% — inflation uncomfortably high"],"observedAt":"2026-05-01"},{"id":"eci","num":21,"category":"Inflation","region":"United States","name":"Employment Cost Index (YoY)","frequency":"Quarterly","sourceLabel":"FRED · ECIALLCIV (computed YoY)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"ppicpi","num":25,"category":"Inflation","region":"United States","name":"PPI − CPI Spread","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · PPI YoY − CPI YoY (pp)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"fedbs","num":26,"category":"Liquidity","region":"United States","name":"Fed Balance Sheet","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · WALCL (total assets, $T)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"netliq","num":27,"category":"Liquidity","region":"United States","name":"Fed Net Liquidity","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · WALCL − TGA − ON RRP ($T)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"realm2","num":28,"category":"Liquidity","region":"United States","name":"Real M2 (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · Real M2 (M2SL ÷ CPI) YoY","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"nfci","num":29,"category":"Liquidity","region":"United States","name":"Chicago Fed NFCI","frequency":"Weekly","sourceLabel":"FRED · NFCI (105-indicator conditions index)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"koreaexports","num":39,"category":"Global","region":"Global","name":"Korea Exports (YoY)","frequency":"Monthly","sourceLabel":"FRED · Korea exports (OECD, computed YoY)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"move","num":44,"category":"Sentiment","region":"United States","name":"MOVE Index (Bond Volatility)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"Yahoo · ^MOVE (Treasury implied vol)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"wti","num":45,"category":"Inflation","region":"Global","name":"WTI Crude Oil","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"Yahoo · CL=F (WTI front-month)","chartable":true,"locked":true},{"id":"termpremium","num":46,"category":"Rates","region":"United States","name":"Treasury Term Premium (ACM 10Y)","frequency":"Daily","sourceLabel":"FRED · THREEFYTP10 (ACM 10Y term premium)","chartable":true,"locked":true}]}